The Final Frontier: How Many Matches for Virat Kohli to Break Sachin Tendulkar’s ODI Run Record?
The quest for Virat Kohli to break Sachin Tendulkar’s all-time record for Most Runs in One-Day Internationals (ODIs) is one of the most exciting narratives in contemporary cricket. Given his current form and phenomenal consistency, the “Master Blaster’s” record is the final frontier for the “King.”
Here is a step-by-step analysis to estimate the number of matches Virat Kohli will likely need.
Step-by-Step Analysis
The analysis is based on the current statistical gap between the two legends and Kohli’s career-defining average in the format.
Step 1: Establish the Current Records
As of the latest available statistics (October 25, 2025):
- Sachin Tendulkar’s Total ODI Runs: 18,426 runs (in 463 matches/452 innings).
- Virat Kohli’s Current ODI Runs: 14,255 runs (in 305 matches/293 innings).
- Virat Kohli’s Career ODI Batting Average: 57.71 runs per innings.
Step 2: Calculate the Runs Required
The first step is to determine the exact number of runs Virat Kohli needs to pass the record.
Virat Kohli needs a minimum of 4,172 runs to break the record.
Step 3: Determine the Projected Innings
To estimate the number of matches, we will use Virat Kohli’s exceptional career batting average in ODIs. Since an ODI match may not always result in a batting innings (due to rain, a successful chase by the top order, etc.), we will use the term “innings” for the calculation, which is the most statistically reliable measure.
Based on his career average, Virat Kohli is projected to need approximately 73 more innings to score the required 4,172 runs.
Step 4: Estimate the Number of Matches
The number of matches needed will always be slightly higher than the number of innings, as a player doesn’t always get to bat in every match.
- Kohli has played 305 matches for 293 innings.
- This gives a ratio of Innings/Matches approx ~ 0.9606$
Using this ratio, we can estimate the number of matches:
Based on his career average and innings-to-match ratio, Virat Kohli is projected to need approximately 76 more ODI matches to break Sachin Tendulkar’s run record.
Discussion on Variables and Context
This analysis is a statistical projection and is subject to several variables that could increase or decrease the final match count.
1. The Impact of Form (Average Fluctuation)
Kohli’s average of 57.71 is elite.
- A “Purple Patch”: If Kohli hits a prolonged purple patch, as he did during his peak years (2016-2018), and maintains an average closer to 65-70, he could break the record in 60-65 matches.
- A Dip in Form: If he experiences a dip in form and his average drops closer to 50, he could require 85-90 matches.
2. Match Frequency (Longevity Factor)
The total time it takes will depend on India’s ODI schedule.
- In the current international cricket calendar, India plays a high volume of T20Is and Tests. Given the emphasis on various ICC tournaments, the number of bilateral ODI series is inconsistent.
- If Kohli’s fitness allows him to play an estimated 20-25 ODIs per year (typical for India in a non-World Cup cycle), he would need approximately 3 to 4 years to play the necessary 76 matches.
3. The ‘Big Score’ Effect
Kohli has 51 ODI centuries, demonstrating a tendency to score big once set.7 Each massive score (150+) significantly reduces the number of future innings needed. As the current record for most ODI centuries is already his, the run record remains the final chase.
Conclusion: The Match Count
Based on a statistical model using his current, world-class career ODI average:
Virat Kohli is projected to need to play approximately 76 more ODI matches to score the necessary 4,172 runs and surpass Sachin Tendulkar’s all-time record of 18,426 runs.
This milestone is one of the most anticipated in modern cricket and, barring a significant drop in form or an early retirement, it is highly likely that Virat Kohli will stand alone at the pinnacle of ODI run-scoring in the coming years.
Is it possible to break Sachin’s milestone? After retiring from T20s and Tests, how many more ODIs will Virat play? Does he have the time to play that many matches? Rumors of his retirement from ODIs are constantly circulating. In today’s scenario, breaking this record seems impossible.
